This report explores three different scenarios for the future of food and agriculture, based on alternative trends for key drivers, such as income growth and distribution, population growth, technical progress in agriculture, and climate change. Building on the report The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges, this publication provides scenario-based quantitative projections to 2050 for food and agriculture.

This report aims at inspiring strategic thinking and actions to transform agrifood systems towards a sustainable, resilient and inclusive future, by building on both previous reports in the same series as well as on a comprehensive corporate strategic foresight exercise that also nurtured FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31. It analyses major drivers of agrifood systems and explores how their trends could determine alternative futures of agrifood, socioeconomic and environmental systems.

The purpose of this report is to increase understanding of the nature of the challenges that agriculture and food systems are facing now and will face into the 21st century. Its analysis of 15 global trends provides insights into what is at stake and what needs to be done. Most of the trends are strongly interdependent and, combined, inform a set of 10 challenges to achieving food security and nutrition for all and making agriculture sustainable. ‘Business-as-usual’ is not an option.

This publication presents the GEF-6 biodiversity strategy for 2014-2018. As the financial mechanism of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) the GEF provides funding to help countries implement the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, 2011-2020, and achieve the Aichi Targets. I am pleased that donors during the recently completed replenishment pledged $1.296 billion towards the biodiversity focal area for GEF-6, making it the largest individual focal area within the GEF.

The impact of global warming on crop growth periods and yields has been evaluated by using crop models, which need to provide various kinds of input datasets and estimate numerous parameters before simulation. Direct studies on the changes of climatic factors on the observed crop growth and yield could provide a more simple and intuitive way for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production.

This methodological framework is based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and multi-criteria assessment methods. It integrates CSA-related issues through the definition of Principles, Criteria and Indicators, and involves farmers in the assessment of the effects of CSA practices. To reflect the complexity of farming systems, the method proposes a dual level of analysis: the farm and the main cash crop/livestock production system. After creating a typology of the farming systems, the initial situation is compared to the situation after the introduction of a CSA practice.

African agriculture is currently at a crossroads, at which persistent food shortages are compounded by threats from climate change. But, as this book argues, Africa can feed itself in a generation and help contribute to global food security. To achieve this Africa has to define agriculture as a force in economic growth by: advancing scientific and technological research; investing in infrastructure; fostering higher technical training; and creating regional markets.

This document examines the macroeconomic and sectoral context and the trends and outlook for crops, livestock, fisheries, forests and rural well-being, as well as the public policies and institutional framework for these sectors. Based on an analysis of the trends and prospects, each chapter offers a series of recommendations for the consideration of decision-makers, in an effort to help address the challenges posed by the global economic dynamics and to take advantage of opportunities.

This paper addresses questions over the function and institutional arrangements of climate finance from an innovation systems perspective. It examines the barriers that prevent developing countries from transitioning to low-carbon and climate-resilient economies, and the interventions necessary to overcome those barriers. It finds that the barriers to innovation and economic change are much more pervasive than a lack of incentives.

Climate forecasts have shown potential for improving resilience of African agriculture to climate shocks, but uncertainty remains about how farmers would use such information in crop management decisions and whether doing so would benefit them. This article presents results from participatory research with farmers from two agro-ecological zones of Senegal, West Africa. Based on simulation exercises, the introduction of seasonal and dekadal forecasts induced changes in farmers’ practices in almost 75% of the cases.