This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain.

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security.

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies.

The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two).

The Raya valley in Tigray, where Alamata Woreda is located, has suitable climate and rich water resources, among others, to grow various tropical fruits. Development of fruits only started a few years ago (1996) with the Raya Valley Development Project and the OoARD (Office of Agriculture and Rural Development), mostly focusing on papaya. A participatory rural appraisal (PRA) study conducted by the Woreda stakeholders identified tropical fruits as a potential marketable commodity in 2005.

Bure district has a diverse ago-ecology, different soil types, a relatively long rainy season and a number of rivers and streams for irrigation. Therefore, it has suitable tract of land to grow temperate, subtropical and tropical fruit crops. In 2007, fruits were identified as a potential marketable commodity by the stakeholders participating in the IPMS project. They diagnosed that farmers had limited orchard management knowledge and skill and were growing locally available less productive and low quality fruit varieties.

Ethiopia has a diverse agro-ecology and sufficient surface and ground water resources, suitable for growing various temperate and tropical fruits. Although various tropical and temperate fruits are grown in the lowland/midland and highland agro-ecologies, the area coverage is very limited. For example, banana export increased from less than 5,000 tons in 1961 to 60,000 tons in 1972, but in 2003 declined to about 1,300 tons worth less than USD 350,000.

With irrigated vegetables development, interventions on the uses of improved inputs such as water lifting devices; varieties; on-farm water, nutrient and pest management, and access to credit and market information were introduced in Atsbi-Womberta district, Ethiopia. Besides, skill and uptake capacity of vegetable growers, extension service providers and vegetable traders were improved accordingly.

Graduate programs in agriculture and allied disciplines in Ethiopia are expected to make concrete contribution to market-oriented development of smallholder agriculture. This, among others, calls for realignment and engagement of the programs with smallholder farmers and, value chain, R&D and policy actors. No panacea exists, however, as to how to ensure effective linkages, and thereby responsiveness. Lessons from initiatives on the ground in the country and beyond is thus crucial to inform the development of appropriate policy and innovative strategy.

Strengthening the capacity of farmer training centers (FTCs) in Ethiopia and enhancing FTC‐based training and knowledge services is important to leverage and optimize potential contributions of FTCs to facilitating market‐led and knowledge‐based agricultural transformation.