Paraiba State, Brazil - Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies. Chapter three presents the estimations of the aggregate impacts of unmanaged agricultural risk on agricultural losses and production volatility. Chapter four identifies risk profiles for different stakeholders, underlying the different types of risk impacts, and then highlights a vulnerability framework. Finally, chapter five presents a prioritization of risks and proposes a preliminary set of priority risk management measures. A short list of potential solution actions is offered as the starting point for a more in-depth solution analysis to be undertaken during the second phase of the risk assessment. Volume two is composed of four chapters. Chapter one provides a brief discussion on the agricultural risk profile and risk management options (solutions) in Paraiba and an inventory of current programs, projects and policies that in different ways address the main agricultural risks. Chapter two presents an overview of the key agricultural sector features as are relevant for understanding the ARM strategy. Chapter three presents the ARM strategy with respect to the intervention areas identified during the first phase, i.e. weather information system, Sanitary and Phytosanitary System (SPS), supply chain coordination, and Agroclimatic Information Systems, including concrete risk management actions. Chapter four incorporates detailed information on the proposed actions aggregated in strategic lines. It includes information about the estimated cost of the actions, the responsible institution and the timeframe. Moreover, a second table provides a short term calendar by institution.